@Article{ChouLGRMRTDPMCOMPS:2020:DoPrCl,
author = "Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Gomes, Jorge
Lu{\'{\i}}s and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Martins,
Minella Alves and Resende, Nicole Costa and Tavares, Priscila da
Silva and Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira and Pilotto, Isabel Lopes
and Martins, Alessandro Marques and Carvalho, Lu{\'{\i}}s Felipe
Alves de and Onofre, Jos{\'e} Luiz Lima and Major, Idal{\'e}cio
and Penhor, Manuel and Santana, Ad{\'e}rito",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de
Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {National Institute of
Meteorology} and {National Institute of Meteorology} and {National
Institute of Meteorology} and {National Institute of
Meteorology}",
title = "Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe
Islands, Africa",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
year = "2020",
volume = "54",
number = "9/10",
pages = "4021--4042",
month = "May",
keywords = "Central Africa · Gulf of Guinea · Small Islands developing states
· Downscaling · Eta model · Regional climate mode.",
abstract = "Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely
vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation,
shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground
aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse
model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically
downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to
assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands.
The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth
System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways
greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is
produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is
taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is
taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show
good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature
more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations
systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the
dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global
climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show
the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome
Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and
warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with
those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases
in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both
islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in
the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed
spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes
in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model
resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from
two major river basins are assessed in this work.",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05212-7",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05212-7",
issn = "0930-7575",
language = "en",
targetfile = "chou_downscaling.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}